 Produces a forecast of gold
prices. The forecast is a shortterm forecast. In the research
that was conducted
to develop the Gold Forecast, correlations between actual
and predicted gold prices were analyzed over 3month periods.
 Includes gold, silver, and copper data. The gold data
includes about 31 ½ years of daily gold price data
 Demonstrates
that the research tools included with Sirius can produce impressive
results.
The Gold Forecast Report consists
of an AstroSignature (combination of astrological influences)
that forecasts gold prices. This AstroSignature serves as a
good example of the kind of result that researcher in any area
of
astrology, and particularly predictive astrology, can achieve
with the research tools in Sirius. Actually, two AstroSignatures
are provided: a higher risk/higher yield forecast, and a
lower risk/lower yield forecast.
The
Gold Forecast Report can be used by financial astrologers, financial
consultants and researchers who are interested in pursuing
astrological variables as a possible additional factor, and astrological
researchers of any area who wish to get a better appreciation for
an AstroSignature that has been developed with the help of actual
empirical research, rather than only assumptions and anecdotal evidence.
Sirius has the ability to produce a graph of predicted behavior,
actual behavior, the correlation between the predicted and actual
behavior, and whether the correlation is statistically significant.
The behavior must be quantifiable and preferably scored at reasonably
regular intervals. Price data is a good example of this behavior.
Another example would be athletic performance, such as batting
average or onbase average of a baseball player for each game played.
Sirius also provides extensive research tools to discover an AstroSignature
that has statistical significance. The Gold Forecast AstroSignature
was developed using these tools.
Shown below is a graph of gold prices predicted by the Gold Forecast
AstroSignature and the actual prices. This is a graph produced
in Sirius, and this is an example of the graph that you can produce
for future time periods if you obtain from a financial data service
recent gold prices.
As you can see from the legend shown below the graph, the dark
green line is the forecasted prices and the light green line is
the actual scores adjusted to fit within the range of predicted
socres so that the graphs can be easily compared.
In
Sirius there are additional windows that can be accessed while
viewing this graph: there is a window for viewing the daily scores
and the astrological influences in effect for each day, so that
you can see the specific details that contribute to the resulting
graph. This window of details is very helpful for analyzing and
understanding the astrological influences that are in effect at
any given time. Also displayed is the correlation value between
the predicted and actual scores. For the above graph the correlation
is .08 (positive 8 percent). Although an 8 percent correlation
may not seem very high, visually you can see that there are some
general similarities between the predicted and actual graphs.
If
you purchase the Gold Forecast Report, you can select the “Customize/View
AstroSignature” button to view the details of the AstroSignature.
You can do this for both the high risk/high yield and for the low
rish/low yield AstroSignatures.
Note that the high risk/high yield AstroSignature is very similar
to the low risk/low yield AstroSignature and the risk and yield
of the two AstroSignatures, although different, is only slightly
different. The high risk/high yield forecast has an average correlation
of about 9% with actual prices, and slightly greater variability
that the low risk/low yield forecast which has about an 80% correlation.
ACCURACY:
Shown
below are the correlations obtained (in percent values rather
than decimal values) for the “Higher Yield, Higher Risk” AstroSignature
provided with the Gold Forecast Report option of Sirius for the
years that the gold prices are available:
QUARTER:
SUMMARY
OF RESULTS:
There are 79 positive correlations and 47 negative correlations.
There are 38 statistically significant positive correlations and
15 statistically significant negative correlations at the .05 level
or higher. At the .01 level of significance there are 24 statistically
significant positive correlations and 7 statistically significant
negative correlations.
The average correlation, calculated as the average of the correlations
listed above, is 8.6%
Most importantly, a calculation of the average correlation using
the Fixed Effects Model in the Zumastat 4.0 statistics software
(www.zumastat.com) produced the following results:
Average Correlation = 9.2 % and p value = .00000. The results are
statisically significant with less than a .00001 significance level
!!!!!
Are the results spurious?
Statisticians and experienced researchers know that finding a
formula that matches existing data is not necessarily difficult.
The formula could be spurious. In other words, it might be a
formula that happens to match previous data, but only because
of random fluctuations and not because of an actual ability to
forecast the behavior.
Several precautions were taken to help prevent identifying an
arbitrary formula that happens to provide a high correlation:
1. Astrological theory was applied consistently rather than arbitrarily.
For example, for harmonic aspects, all aspects in the harmonic
are used and all are used with equal weighting. When a 7th harmonic
aspect is used, for example, the 1/7, 2/7, and 3/7 aspects are
incorporated into the formula and all 3 aspects are given the same
weight. It may be possible that different aspects are more important,
but there is currently no theoretical basis to support this idea
so it was not implemented in the formula.
2. The formula is consistent with astrological theory and previous
findings. For example, the findings from the study of the Gauquelin
data indicated that particular harmonic aspects would be important,
and this concept was applied in the gold forecast. Click here (http://www.astrosoftware.com/discovery.htm)
to read the study of the Gauquelin data. A pilot study using similar
astrological principles also obtained positive results and you
can click here (http://www.astrosoftware.com/Proveast.htm) to read
this article.
3. Only astrological influences that are reasonably consistent
with astrological theory were used.
Given these restrictions applied in the research, the gold forecast
formula and the pursuit of AstroSignatures for forecasting commodity
prices deserves additional research, and may prove to have a viable
and sound scientific basis despite the current skepticism in the
scientific community that planetary positions can have any relationship
to terrestrial behavior other than via gravity or other mechanisms
already identified and understood. The Gold Forecast is a sincere
and impressive step in developing objective validation of astrology
and applying astrology in a realistic and reliable way to financial
forecasting. The Gold Forecast, however, has not been validated
and replicated by additional research and therefore, from a scientific
point of view, must still be considered speculative. Note that
the reason why research is conducted is to understand something
that was previously not understood. The Gold Forecast, and the
research cited above which is based on similar principles, represents
a step towards greater understanding.
